A Vicious Circle

When homeland security officials point out that we are still threatened by al-Qaeda, we are sometimes accused of fear-mongering. But when it comes to creating a bogeyman to scare the public, it’s our critics who are in a league by themselves.

The Washington Post recently recycled a travel association claim that overseas travel to the U.S. has declined since 2000 because people are treated badly at the border (“Fear Is A Tax, And We’re Eagerly Paying It,” Josef Joffe). I say recycled because this is at least the tenth time in the past year that much the same claim has been repeated, always accompanied by references to the same flawed poll. While saying they just want to encourage tourism, Joffe and the industry that commissioned the biased poll are in fact discouraging it by perpetuating fear of a border “security apparat,” whose face is “distorted by fear and suspicion.”

There are two problems with the claim that travel to the U.S. has declined because of harsh security at the border. First, the poll Joffe cites as evidence that border security is too harsh doesn’t actually show that at all. Half the respondents had not come to the U.S. in the last five years. So when they were asked whether they feared rude treatment in U.S. Customs, they weren’t relying on recent experience. The only data they had to go on was the news media. Peddling this uninformed judgment as proof that travelers are treated badly simply generates more stories claiming rude treatment in the U.S. It’s a nearly perfect example of a vicious circle.

The second problem with Joffe’s argument is that there has not been a reduction in travel to the United States. It is true that, after 9/11, there was a decline in global tourism (not just travel to the United States). However, international arrivals to the U.S. have risen for four consecutive years, and they have returned to pre-9/11 levels.

Some argue that those figures reflect a disproportionate increase in Canadian and Mexican visitors, while visitors from overseas (mostly Europe) are still below 2000 levels. Maybe so, but that in itself raises doubts about the claim that our border practices are deterring travel. The U.S. doesn’t have one line at the airport full of friendly inspectors for Canadians and a different line for Europeans.

So why has travel from Europe been slower to recover? Here’s one answer: During the last five years, transatlantic plane fares have steadily increased while intra-European fares have dropped, making it cheaper to fly from Britain to Southern Spain or Italy than to Florida. That’s a much more straightforward explanation for the slow recovery of transatlantic travel.

Want proof? How’s this--overseas travel to Canada dropped even further after 2001 than travel to the U.S. And travel to Canada has not been as quick to rebound. But no one thinks Canada’s border has gotten more unfriendly recently. Only transatlantic fares explain why European travel to both the U.S. and Canada have been slow to reach 2001 levels.

We at DHS want to attract more international travelers. We will continue to do whatever it takes to improve the quality of our welcome. But we won’t stay silent when aspersions are cast on the quality of our workforce.

Stewart Baker
Assistant Secretary for Policy