What is that Future World Gonna Look Like?

Host: Brittany Greco, Senior Communications Specialist, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security

Guest: Kristin Wyckoff, Senior Advisor, Strategic Foresighting and Futures, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security

[00:00:00] Kristin Wyckoff: What might these different futures look like and which one do we really wanna focus on bringing about? And then that really helps give us those actions on, okay, if we wanna achieve that future, what do we start thinking about today?

[00:00:10] Dave DeLizza: This is technologically speaking, the official podcast for the Department of Homeland Security, Science Technology Directorate or S&T, as we call it. Join us as we meet the science and technology experts on the front lines, keeping America safe.

[00:00:24] Brittany Greco: Hello everybody and welcome to Technologically Speaking. I'm one of your hosts, Brittany Greco, and we are so lucky today to be joined by Kristin Wyckoff, our senior advisor for Strategic Foresight and Futures.

[00:00:35] Kristin, welcome to the podcast.

[00:00:37] Kristin: Thank you. It's great to be here.

[00:00:39] Brittany: So we're gonna just start with the basics. What is Strategic Foresighting at S&T?

[00:00:44] Kristin: It's really a systematic way to look at change and to really understand what that change might look like for the Homeland Security Mission. It helps us, as we rush to try and find solutions today to make sure that those are the right solutions that'll really help us be able to continue addressing the evolving landscapes that we're dealing with.

[00:01:03] Brittany: So let's unpack that a little bit, 'cause I think it's something that, we talk about a lot at S&T.

[00:01:07] So when we talk about the landscape, what exactly are we looking for?

[00:01:10] Kristin: What we're looking for are those signals of change. These days I think we're all inundated with, news articles and blog posts and newspapers, uh, scientific literature.

[00:01:21] So really trying to bring a more systematic way for how science and technology can be helping the department look ahead and seeing what those signals of change might be telling us, and really how they might converge and really blend into maybe futures that look a little bit different than today.

[00:01:38] One of the things I love about this organization is the amount of subject matter expertise we have, and so Foresight I got excited about 'cause it really provides this framework that allows us to bring a lot of these different types of experts together along with our mission owners and operators, to really all be collectively looking at some of these signals that we might be seeing and really playing out what that might look like over time with the whole idea of just trying to avoid surprise and make sure that whatever we're focused on investing in now we can feel confident that'll be the same type of capability that we'll need in the future.

[00:02:12] Brittany: A lot of folks we talk to on this podcast, they're very focused on, I have this type of expertise, I'm working on this project with these stakeholders.

[00:02:20] But you are really looking across the board, and trying to figure out, what are the challenges that we're gonna see in the future in the, I guess, medium to long term that we need to be prepared for?

[00:02:30] Kristin: Exactly. And I was reflecting as I came in today on… Wow, we could even bring some of the previous podcast guests from previous episodes. I know we've talked about the metaverse, we've talked about space systems. So I'm really trying to bring a lot of those signals of where things are headed, as society geopolitically with technology and really try to unpack that together with folks across the department and with our R&D partners, to really think through what those implications could be for DHS and for those folks also in the field, as well, we work with folks across the state and local territorial government. How can we really be bringing to bear all those partnerships that we have and all that expertise we have to be scanning and bringing folks in to, to really start thinking a bit further out.

[00:03:15] Brittany: These big conversations about… what capabilities are emerging, what should we be chasing, what should we be anticipating? How do those conversations trickle down to the transportation security officer who's scanning folks, or the Customs and Border Protection officer who's making sure that you know the borders are secure. How do these conversations translate into real results?

[00:03:38] Kristin: So I love that question 'cause I will confess that many years ago when I first heard the word futurist, I may have eyerolled a little bit, and you know, fast forward now and uh, and I'm all in. It's a great question and I think the, the key concept behind foresight is, how do you apply it? How does it inform your actions today? We've just over the last few weeks been, running a few workshops and it's really trying to understand how do we set that table with the focus being on as we walk through the foresight process, ensuring that we do have those actionable insights, that can be used by S&T to really validate some of our R&D.

[00:04:15] So it really is trying to ensure that everything we're doing when we're looking at specific questions that we're trying to get our arms around… Who needs that information to help make decisions today. So that is very much applied foresight, I believe is a term that's often used. So it's fun just to think about the future, but ultimately we have so many decisions that we need to make day to day, and how can we be using this process to make sure we're making the smartest decisions? And that what wherever and for we're investing in is addressing issues today, but also we'll be addressing those issues that we'll have tomorrow.

[00:04:46] Brittany: Right, 'cause everyone, has finite resources, finite time. So it is a question of how do you prioritize the things coming down the pike. It's knowing this is gonna be worth the investment and what's not worth the investment.

[00:04:59] Kristin: Yes. That's a great point too. I think when you start looking at, with research and development, it can sometimes be a few years before you're ultimately gonna see that capability in the field. So how can foresight just help us continually feel comfortable with those decisions and investments we're making that by the time it rolls out, it's not already overcome by some new technology or some other development that maybe we didn't see coming.

[00:05:22] Brittany: Mm-hmm.

[00:05:22] Kristin: So yes, absolutely. How do we make the most efficient use of resources? I think for the department too, we have such a broad mission set. And I also see, again, that beauty of this process and bringing different stakeholders together is really maybe identifying some of those, similarities that we don't recognize on the surface that different, operational units across the department may have.

[00:05:42] So it's really, I think for S&T, again, it gives us that chance to try and bring some of the different, elements across the department together and be looking at where there might be common areas that we could be pursuing. To your point, like looking at those investments that really might have a big impact on multiple missions and how can that maybe inform our decision making on where we go.

[00:06:01] Brittany: And that's why, so often at S&T we talk about capabilities. It's not just about, you know, we're delivering, specific technologies at times. But it's more about can you do data processing better? Can you do screening more effectively and efficiently? It's saying this is a new capability that could be applied across the different mission spaces at DHS.

[00:06:19] Kristin: Yes, and I think along that vein too, it's the recognition that we're very focused on the capabilities and the technology, but those are gonna be deployed in an actual world where, what's a societal acceptance of certain approaches, geopolitically, how are things evolving? The economic environment. So one of the other things I really appreciate about foresighting is it's really looking at things in a very holistic way of what is that future world gonna look like? Are these capabilities are gonna be put into place, and will they still function the way we're planning for them to function? Taking all of that into account.

[00:06:53] Brittany: Can you tell us a little bit more about how your work informs strategic planning and acquisitions? 'Cause those, to me at least, they sound a little bit like two different conversations where, everyone knows what a strategic plan is. It's Hey, we're gonna do X, Y, Z over the next few years. Acquisition feels more immediate?

[00:07:09] Kristin: On the strategic planning side, one facet of Foresighting that people tend to, be familiar with and grab a hold of is that notion of scenario planning. And as we get more traction around applying, the foresight framework, there has been a lot of discussion on if we're able to look at a specific area and say, what is the future of border security in 2035? And start looking at those signals of change and laying out, we're not predicting a future, but hey, here's several ways the future may unfold. And being able to bring in, with S&T, we've got great relationships with Department of Energy National Labs, our DHS laboratories. We work closely with industry, we work closely with academia.

[00:07:51] Again, mentioning the broad array of subject matter experts within DHS S&T and that idea of really being able to paint that scenario or story or preferred future that we'd really like to get to, and really just be able to roll that out and say, okay, where do labs have unique capabilities that could help get us there?

[00:08:09] What's DHS's piece in, in advancing that. And so from a strategic perspective, really trying to understand all the complementary capabilities that our partners have and how can we best bring all those together to really affect the changes that we'd like to drive toward. And how do we take more control of that and bring all of our partners together and have that shared vision so that when we're all developing our strategies, they're somewhat coordinated in a sense, 'cause we all know where we're trying to achieve that end state. On the acquisition side, we've got strong relationships with all the components, continually trying to get them what they need to deal with what they need to get done this week, next week, next year.

[00:08:48] I think on the foresight side, it does allow us to, to help just maybe shape those requirements, we receive a little bit more, like they know what they need now, but if we're also able to say, Hey, we're seeing this capability that might be available in a couple of years, would that change what you're asking for now? So I think it's just helping, I don't know, bring a different perspective to the conversations on the now and maybe try to get us thinking a little bit differently on what might be coming up that we could embrace.

[00:09:19] Brittany: So having those conversations, with acquisition folks, have you ever witnessed those aha moments where they go, oh, that is something we need to think about. You're right. Have you ever personally witnessed those sort of awakenings, I guess?

[00:09:31] Kristin: So we did have a, an exercise the other week and it was fun where we laid out, Hey, here's all these different hits and signals of change we see. And it was bringing together this group from Customs and Border Protection from private sector. We had some of our international partners in the room. We had folks from the laboratories, some of our social science team. How do you see these things starting to kind of really form drivers of change?

[00:09:57] And, one thing that no one had really been tracking was space. What does space really mean for the CBP mission and for border security?

[00:10:05] Brittany: Yeah.

[00:10:06] Kristin: And different people are having those conversations. But again, I think it was just neat having everybody in one room, like we didn't know we were all working within this space, and I think it's less of just a maybe that, actual aha moment on an acquisition, but just starting to change our thinking, and start bringing in different types of relationships with our subject matter experts that can just get people thinking a little bit differently as we move forward, supporting the department.

[00:10:30] Brittany: So you mentioned, a border security workshop that you had recently. So we know border security, huge priority for the department, for the administration, S&T's working hard to support it. Can you tell us a little bit about that workshop and what the purpose and outcomes were?

[00:10:43] Kristin: So this was really a chance to start thinking about who should we have in a room? What's that broad, perspective of folks that are working on different aspects of border security? Some day to day, some may be a little bit distant, the industry perspective. The international perspective. And really just have us all get a chance just to take a step back and look at what those signals are and, and then start playing out what might this mean for border security?

[00:11:09] So walking out of that workshop will have a, a set of drivers of change to really just help us see, based on all these signals, we are very keen to make sure this is all evidence-based so we can point back to where we're actually seeing things occur, things happening. How can we take all that input and really start to unpack what it might mean for Homeland Security. And then the next step will be really playing out those scenarios. Like, what might these different futures look like and which one do we really wanna focus on bringing about? And then that really helps give us those actions on, okay, if we wanna achieve that future, what do we start thinking about today? What do we invest in today? Maybe what do we put more money into that we weren't thinking about? Because it really looks like it might have a long tail. And whereas, again, it helps us think through, we can help resolve this issue over the next two years, but let's make sure we've got that next capability starting to get primed to, to fill in the gap.

[00:12:01] Brittany: And I think the point you're making is really critical too about, it's not like we're just in a river, we're being carried along and it's oh, certain things are inevitable, but we have no control over it. S&T's actively trying to, empower the department to say, we do have agency, we can, shift in these ways to get us to where we wanna go and we can bring about that future.

[00:12:19] Failures of imagination, that we sometimes hear about where, our adversaries are constantly innovating as well. How do we make sure we're staying ahead of those or staying ahead of these evolving threats?

[00:12:29] Kristin: Well said. The department really was set up after September 11th and there was a big question on that failure of imagination. And I really do see foresight playing a key role in providing us with some great tools to make sure that we're all able to just keep looking up and make sure that we're not, we're not missing anything. We hear a lot about the rapid pace and change and uncertainty, and I feel like foresight just does give you a little bit more of a chance to sit in the driver's seat a bit, and we can advance where we'd like to see things go and not just be in a reactive mode.

[00:12:59] so it's been, that's what something I've definitely taken away from it. I've also really appreciated just, um, the chance to, again, just, I didn't realize when I first kicked this off for S&T, just the great work being done in pockets around the department. And so I think really having this shared framework where we're all able to plug in and just, lessons learned from how other people have been approaching this kind of being able to stand back and look at it from more of a departmental view, has also been really gratifying of just trying to find those efficiencies. And again, Coast Guard's looking at things from Coast Guard's perspective. FEMA's looking at them from FEMA's perspective. How can we maybe bring these together a little bit and again, just open up our eyes to what might be coming down the pike and what we could be doing, to steer things where we'd like them to go.

[00:13:44] Brittany: So did you pitch this capability, the foresighting idea to S&T or was this something that we'd always been doing?

[00:13:50] Kristin: I'm sure we've had projects in the past. And, 'cause it's not a new practice. It's been around for quite a while.

[00:13:55] Brittany: Right.

[00:13:56] Kristin: But I will say I spent five years, as our at Attaché in Ottawa, Canada. International partnerships are key for us. And when I came back there was an opportunity to share what have I seen a lot of our international partners, just some of their best practices, capabilities that they've put in place, things they really relied on to help make their investment decisions and identify partnerships. And I had really latched onto that practice of foresighting.

[00:14:23] There's a lot going on in the world and things are shifting and foresight helps you identify those opportunities where you can improve how you accomplish your mission. It also really does help you identify maybe where are those risks or threats that we aren't necessarily seeing, whether they're from technology or, again, kinda looking at it more holistically, just as the world shifts and criminal enterprises shift, how are we again, able to monitor how that's changing and how we should be prepared to address it?

[00:14:51] Brittany: So people talk about, decreasing those risks. What does that mean, to the person on the street? We're decreasing the risk by looking into the future and figuring out where we need to make our investments. Is it risk of resource allocation? Is it risk of something bad happening? Like what are those risks?

[00:15:07] Kristin: All of the above. There's this term emerging risk and what might be under the surface and that we should be monitoring it and just make sure that we aren't surprised and that if we're able to mitigate it, we're able to mitigate it. Is there some new cybersecurity threat or ransomware that you're seeing issues like ransomware and hospital systems and things like that?

[00:15:28] It's just critical infrastructure. Where are you seeing issues, whether manmade or natural, like how do we need to be making sure critical infrastructure is protected? It's all of those things.

[00:15:39] Brittany: Mmmm.

[00:15:40] Kristin: Just trying to understand what is that whole range of risks specific to homeland security and how do we get ahead of those?

[00:15:46] Brittany: That's a broad portfolio to look at.

[00:15:48] Kristin: Yes.

[00:15:48] Brittany: I mean, that's. I mean, it's everything under the sun basically, it's a lot to consider.

[00:15:52] Kristin: Yes.

[00:15:53] Brittany: Are there any things that keep you up at night? Or I should say, what things keep you up at night? For me, it's AI. It can do so much and it is moving so quickly. Do you ever look at the technology landscape and you think, Ooh, I'm worried about this thing?

[00:16:07] Kristin: Bio is probably mine. But I think you're absolutely right with AI and actually AI is an interesting topic. Even within foresight, there's this question on why do you need people to do all this? AI can just tell you the trends and, but I think if anything else, it's kind of helping me see where the human is still absolutely necessary and the relationships and the sense making. And I think it goes back to something you helped pull the thread on earlier, giving us all a sense of agency. I sometimes feel like AI is amazing, and there's a lot of ways it can be used. Again, foresight can help us think through where are people starting to use it maybe in ways we wish they wouldn't, and how do we prepare for that? Also how are there ways we could be using it just to make our jobs easier and help us focus where we really want to focus. But it still, to me all comes back to the people and making sure that we're centered to a lot of this and trying to make sense out of it and be able to work across the department with the public and really add that value system of what is most important to us and what do we really want to affect, as far as change and focus on and prepare for?

[00:17:17] Brittany: And if folks wanna learn more about S&Ts work with AI. We have some very lovely episodes from prior seasons. You can go check out where we talked to Dr. Henninger. We talked to Donald Coulter. So if you wanna deep dive into AI, I do encourage you to go listen to those. Okay, so getting back into, the Foresighting, talking about, the future of research, at some point you do have to put the pen down and say, okay, this is where we need to be going. When do you know that you've reached that point?

[00:17:42] Kristin: I, again, I've been lucky to have, at the University of Houston is who we've been working with that, has this pretty established framework, and Andy Hines from that program has been doing this for a long time, and so he keeps me focused because to your point, I live in information overload. It's where, it's my happy place, but when it comes down to trying to, actually walk out with, here's the actions, here's where we need to go. It's just a little bit, it's a process and, you do have to frame it. We've broken it down and decomposed it into all different pieces and parts. Let's go out and see what those signals might look like. Peppering it with some interviews of subject matter experts as well. But to your point, cap that out at a certain number. It doesn't just go on forever.

[00:18:21] Pull all the research together and sift through and then, bring this workshop together where everyone gets a chance to play with it and extrapolate and develop these scenarios and then pull everybody back in a smaller group at the end to be like, okay, what do we see as the key implications and options that we should really think about acting on now based on that? But just trying to, again, framing it out as a project at the end of the day. I think to your point, it's a big word, like future is foresight, but you're trying to answer a question. It's just using this particular, foresighting framework to help you answer it and explore what some of those options are. So it's just trying to bring that repeatable process to bear.

[00:18:57] Brittany: And in my mind it makes sense to have it as something that is continuous and ongoing. That way it doesn't feel like, we have, this is our only shot, so we have to get everything, everything.

[00:19:05] Kristin: Absolutely. And that really does wrap up, like the project process is really understanding, okay, what are those, 12 to 15 issues or things or signals that we really think are most important for us to continually monitor? And that might even just help us figure out too, what's that next project we wanna run? Like we're seeing this interesting cluster of things, maybe we should step back and run through an exercise on, what do we see that future playing out as over the next few years?

[00:19:32] Brittany: So this may be an off question, but is there any consideration of like science fiction or, looking towards, authors or artists in the creative space to go, are they exploring something that we should maybe be looking at as a possibility?

[00:19:47] Kristin: Wonderful question. Um, yes, again, this is a, a longstanding field and I know that other organizations and projects, they've actually brought in science fiction writers. And, there's some pretty well-known futurists now that kind of work in that space actually write while they do futuring for clients and things.

[00:20:06] Brittany: I like that.

[00:20:07] Kristin: And, it's a little bit of a culture shift I think in some ways, just even trying to get people thinking about scenarios--

[00:20:12] Brittany: Oh wow.

[00:20:13] Kristin: What are they thinking about that maybe we haven't thought about. Yeah. yeah, I'd love to see more of that moving forward.

[00:20:18] Brittany: I wanna go back to something you mentioned earlier about your time as an attaché. What drew you to that work and what did you enjoy most about the position?

[00:20:25] Kristin: Ooh… It was a brand new opportunity. We had not had someone in Ottawa before. And um, maybe that's our theme today. I like new things, so it's oh, give this a shot. I think it, it's my sense of curiosity, it was a chance to see how an embassy runs to really get, an understanding of the US interagency in that environment, around a mission in a, in another country. And then I also had the chance to work really closely with our R&D partners in Canada, and it's just pretty cool. What are the similar things we're working on? Can we divide and conquer? Like a lot of the stuff is very similar, especially when you're talking about the border and kind of that shared geography or first responders. It's a lot of just the same needs, emergency management. So it was an awesome experience.

[00:21:09] You know, the people were great. I just, I don't think I fully appreciated just that long history between the two countries. And just, again, a lot of the shared challenges, it's like us too, and again, how do we just work together smarter and better? But it was great. I was like, wait, we're working on that. We could just, so it was nice to be able to connect those dots. That was really gratifying, too.

[00:21:28] Brittany: All right. So switching gears a little bit. We've talked about the research and the work that you're doing to look at the future of the southern border. A lot of it is rugged, very intense weather. I understand you're also doing some work to look at the future of the Arctic. Can you tell us a little bit about that?

[00:21:43] Kristin: Yeah, absolutely. The US is huge. Yes. So there does end up being a lot of lessons learned as you start exploring those more extreme environments. I think we're always looking for those wins where you're investing in something and then realize the application in other areas. A lot of times it's just it can be a very similar need, and so I think, again, it, those are the fun aha moments. We're like, wait a minute. I think that's actually the same thing I'm looking for, and how might we be able to leverage that? I think with the Arctic too, there's been a real focus on partnering with the communities that have been doing those environments for a very long time.

[00:22:17] If someone's already, nailed solution to X, we can go and maybe pursue something else. But just bringing that shared awareness of who's working on what within that space.

[00:22:25] Brittany: Yeah. Because there's no reason to start from zero if somebody else is like, hey, we're, we've made some progress. Let's start from there.

[00:22:31] Kristin: Exactly. Exactly.

[00:22:32] Brittany: Very cool. We've talked around this, can you help our listeners who may not be familiar with S&T's position in DHS, can you help 'em explain why S&T is so uniquely positioned to have these conversations and to bring this perspective?

[00:22:45] Kristin: So, is the department science and technology arm. We're really positioned to look across the range of missions. So when you've got the US Secret Service and Coast Guard and Transportation Security Administration and critical infrastructure and cybersecurity agency, we have such a huge mission. And I think it's neat to have an S&T organization that's able to help look across and see where there might be common capabilities. So even with the foresight work, one of the first things I did was try to understand with across the department who might be doing this type of work, and then really how does S&T kind of come in and help connect those folks?

[00:23:22] So I like to think of S&T as really, able to help make those connections across the department. Really help amplify the work maybe some of the individual components are doing and, and how it might help their colleagues and other components. And then figure out like, are there gaps that S&T could really help come in and fill?

[00:23:40] And so that's really, as I try to lay out where S&T wants to take our foresight focus, really wanting to understand what's gonna be most useful for the components at the end of the day, and how can we compliment what they're doing and really build off of S&T's opportunity to help look across the department futures?

[00:23:55] Brittany: Yeah.

[00:23:56] Kristin:So it goes back to some of these products that come out of Foresighting and how you can use 'em as jumping off points for conversations. And so S&T works with the R&D community, but how do we also help the components better communicate directly, with the R&D?

[00:24:09] Brittany: Talking more about, your professional background, but, where were you before, S&T? What brought you here?

[00:24:14] Kristin: My background is more in emergency management and continuity of operations.

[00:24:17] Brittany: Ooh.

[00:24:18] Kristin: It, I feel like this just came home to me recently that it makes sense I would be drawn to the foresight work, 'cause a lot of my early career was spent on training and exercises preparing, just communities and government for mostly, it was like, the hurricane season or, an unexpected event. More in the near term, but similar type of thing. But national preparedness, how do we all just prepare for what might come next? Probably shouldn't be a surprise that I ended up coming full circle many years later. So yes, many years, working across the government as a consultant, and then I came to the department in 2005.

[00:24:56] Brittany: Oh, wow.

[00:24:56] Kristin: Um, worked with the Federal Emergency Management Agency for many years and then came over to S&T is again, just really thought S&T had a cool mission, looking across the department and, so came in focused on critical infrastructure and emergency management. And then wanted to see what could we do with our international partners and solve some of these things?

[00:25:16] Brittany: I can see how that would be a natural progression of the emergency management perspective. If you were to pitch Foresighting to somebody who is interested in the field, or if you were to just explain its importance to somebody, how would you explain it?

[00:25:28] Kristin: Ooh, Foresighting… I love the idea that Foresight gives you this tool set to really be able to see changes that are occurring and think through what those implications might be. It just helps you feel more comfortable in the decisions that you make today. It helps give you a way to engage with others to make sure that you're seeing different sides of a situation, that you're not just looking at it from your own lens, but bringing in some of those other voices. So again, you can just feel much more secure in, in what you're investing in and that it'll have staying power and that you're on the right course and that you can keep coming back and be monitoring and feel comfortable that you're getting where you wanna go. That we really can shape the future that we want. And foresight's just a great way to really do that as part of this broader Homeland Security team.

[00:26:22] Brittany: We really appreciate you bringing your perspective and your enthusiasm for this subject. I think that's a huge benefit to S&T and DHS. So thank you for all the work that you're doing.

[00:26:31] Kristin: Thank you for the interest in the topic.

[00:26:33] Brittany: Thank you, Kristin, for joining us today. It's been wonderful talking to you, and we will see you all in the next episode.

[00:26:39] Dave: Thank you for listening to Technologically Speaking. To learn more about what you've heard in this episode, check out the show notes on our website, and follow us on Apple Podcasts and YouTube, and on social media at DHS SciTech. D H S S C I T E C H. Bye!