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  1. Science and Technology
  2. Research & Development
  3. Counter Terrorist
  4. Probabilistic Analysis for National Threats Hazards and Risks (PANTHR)

Probabilistic Analysis for National Threats Hazards and Risks (PANTHR)

The PANTHR life cycle. 1- Analysis, Awareness and Engagement Integrate New Data/Refine Models and Tools, Analyze Hazards and Deliver Technical Assessments, Identify and Prioritize Data Gaps. 2 – Characterization Research: Technical Review of Study Plans and Final Reports, Evaluate Research Progress, and Determine Research Priorities. 3 - Knowledge Management: Maintain Infrastructure and Archive Knowledge Products. The Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) has established the Probabilistic Analysis for National Threats Hazards and Risks (PANTHR) program to strengthen customer engagement within the homeland security enterprise by aligning chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) hazard awareness and characterization activities to provide timely, accurate, and defensible decision support tools and knowledge to stakeholders. 

PANTHR provides critical technical information on CBRN hazards to decision makers and operators to enable better informed decisions to prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from a weapon of mass destruction event. For further information please contact PANTHR at: panthr@hq.dhs.gov

PANTHR is working on characterizing the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. The work being done will provide insight regarding how long the virus can survive on surfaces, the potential for those contaminated surfaces to infect additional individuals, and the ability of various disinfection technologies to clean these surfaces to prevent further infection/transmission. This work will help answer questions for the DHS Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office and U.S. Customs and Border Protection about the hazards posed by packages and cargo.

The program is maintaining a summary of open source information on the COVID-19 pandemic tailored to questions of operational relevance and impact. The Master Question List is updated biannually. For questions about the Omicron variant and its emerging subvariants, a targeted Omicron Variant Supplemental Reference, Omicron Fact Sheet, and Eris and Fornax Supplemental Reference, are available.

PANTHR is working with the Plum Island Animal Disease Center (PIADC) to actively track the worldwide spread and impacts of African Swine Fever (ASF) virus and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), collaborating with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA.) and other federal agencies, to examine and reduce the risk of these diseases to the United States agricultural sector.

PANTHR strives to increase awareness, improve understanding, and facilitate effective decision-making regarding current and future chemical and biological hazards through tailored products, tools, technologies, and information. This is accomplished through the pursuit of three strategic goals:

  1. Risk Analysis: PANTHR develops and executes modeling and risk analysis capabilities to generate tailored strategic, operational, and tactical hazard risk assessments and decision support tools. The Tools for Integrated Evaluation of Risk (TIGER) project has been prioritized to develop advanced risk modeling tools. TIGER will be an integrated effort to address CBRNE and Food & Agriculture Sector risk analysis, leveraging lessons learned from past efforts and building a harmonized, integrated capability to assess WMD risks.
  2. Characterization: PANTHR conducts research on traditional, new, and emerging chemical, biological, and agricultural threat agents to better understand their fundamental properties. This work includes the development and validation of required analytic methods to support CBRN hazard awareness and the formation of strategies to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from hazardous incidents. The Biological Threat Characterization (BTC) project is currently looking to expand to address advances in biotechnology. The Chemical Threat Characterization (CTC) project is currently working to fill critical chemical hazard data gaps. The Agricultural Threat Characterization (AgTC) project is the newest project expansion under PANTHR to provide characterization and evaluation of new and emerging agricultural threats agents.
  3. Knowledge Management: PANTHR provides a single, enduring capability to archive, access, and communicate chemical and biological hazard information. The program has initialized the Hazard Knowledge Center (HKC) project to leverage existing infrastructure and further expand PANTHR efforts.

PANTHR works closely with the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center and Chemical Security Analysis Center to support and execute a range of awareness and characterization activities. 

Key stakeholders and customers include:

  • DHS Components (Transportation Security Administration, Federal Emergency Management Agency, etc.)
  • Department of Energy
  • Department of Agriculture
  • Department of State
  • Environmental Protection Agency
  • Department of Treasury
  • Department of Justice
  • Department of Health and Human Services
  • Department of Defense
  • State and local police departments
  • International Partners: Australia, Canada, European Union, United Kingdom 

Last Updated: 02/21/2024
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